For all the "Moral Imperative" arguments and other hyperbole that President Obama and his like-minded health reformers have put out in their briefings and town hall meetings about the uninsured, we have to ask, has anyone done the math?  And not just about the extraordinary cost burden of the various Democratic plans, but about the practicality of driving 47 million uninsured into a health system that is already inefficient and understaffed

Today's New York Times actually addresses the issue and highlights the problem the nation could face in 2013 when all Americans would be required to have health insurance, under the House proposal. 

We not only have the demographic boom in the 65+ population contrasted by a leveling off in the growth of the number of physicians, but also the experience of a state that has addressed the problem of the uninsured (chart on right).  In Massachusetts, which implemented universal healthcare in 2006, the health system was so taxed that 24% of residents surveyed in 2008 claimed that they had a hard time getting the care they needed, compared to 16% the year before.  That's an increase of 50% in just one year.   And the state has yet to figure just out how to pay for this plan.

The article also notes that by 2025 (chart on left), the American Medical College projects a shortage of 124,000 physicians without universal coverage, and another 25,000 with it.


Our view is that there are plenty of problems with healthcare in this country.  But logic of pushing more people into a system that isn't working is neither moral nor an imperative.  We should focus on strategies that build off free-market solutions that have proven effective across other sectors such as financial services, auto insurance, or travel.  Use the principles of economic theory that promote choice, price transparency, quality comparisons and other solutions that can allow consumers to flex their market power and drive efficiency into the system.

Part of this also means promoting greater personal responsibility for individual health - which will not come with the Democratic plans.  We're moving in the wrong direction if we provide more power to the government to implement change, rather than to the patient who should be in the driver's seat.


Frank Hone
Author, Why Healthcare Matters


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